Historic El Nino threat raises fresh risks for Kenya's economy and food security

Kenya is staring down the barrel of its most powerful El Nino in more than four decades, with forecasters and economists warning of a potential catastrophe that threatens to overwhelm a cash-strapped government already grappling with slowing growth, rising inflation and depleted fiscal buffers.

The anticipated El Nino could tip Kenya's strained economy into deeper crisis, the analysts warn, as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – a key measure of the phenomenon's intensity – plunged to -29.1 in July, its lowest level since February 1983, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

"The last time the SOI reached such a low level was during the 1982 to 1983 El Nino, which is widely regarded as one of the strongest and most destructive events on record," the newly published Oxford Economics Africa report noted.

The US Climate Prediction Centre now estimates an 81 per cent probability of a "very strong" El Nino between October and December "that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950."

For Kenya, the phenomenon typically brings heavy rainfall and flooding during the October-to-December short rains season. The Kenya Meteorological Department has warned of an 81 per cent chance of a very strong event, with a 97 per cent probability that conditions will persist into early 2027.

"A severe El Nino could have devastating effects across Africa, bringing heat and drought to some areas and extreme flooding to others," the Oxford Economics Africa report warns. "These risks come at a time of elevated global energy and fertiliser prices, which will add further pressure to the continent's agricultural sector."

"During the 2023-2024 El Nino-driven drought, maize production in several countries fell by more than 50 per cent from the previous year, prompting multiple governments to declare national disasters."