Kenya's forex numbers raise a tough question: are the apparent winners skilled traders or simply survivors of a game stacked against them?. [Courtesy]
“I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong... but time and chance happeneth to them all.” Ecclesiastes 9:11
What if the trader flexing a rented Rolls-Royce on Instagram isn’t a market wizard at all but simply the last man standing in a coin-toss tournament nobody told him he was playing? Picture this. Fill Nyayo National Stadium’s 30,000 seats with Kenyan forex traders. Hand each one a shilling coin.
Kenyatta’s face lands up: a win. The coat of arms (Simba) side lands up: a loss. Flip once a year, for three years, and only those who keep landing on Kenyatta stay in their seats.
Here is the uncomfortable part: this isn’t a thought experiment. It’s roughly what 2025 already did to 152,110 real accounts.
The coin, as you’re about to see, was never a fair one. What you’re about to read isn’t a story about bad traders. It’s a story about a rigged coin dressed up as bad luck, and a good statistic doing brutal, necessary work on our judgment.
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