Exactly one year before Kenyans head to the ballot box to elect their leaders, warnings from security agencies, researchers and political observers are raising concerns about the resurgence of organised gangs as instruments of political competition.

From attacks on political rallies and public gatherings to the deadly violence witnessed during the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, experts warn that politically-connected groups of young men could undermine the credibility of the polls if left unchecked.

The recruitment of youth for political motives often begins with a simple phone call or WhatsApp message directing young men where to assemble and what to expect. Within hours, groups can be mobilised from estates and informal settlements, with some lured by small payments while others are unaware of the real assignment until they arrive.

Gunmen — A screengrab of a video shows hooded men brandishing guns and hurling tear gas canisters at residents and journalists during the Ol Kalou by-elections on July 16, 2026.

Photo credit: Pool

Once deployed, they may be used to swell crowds, disrupt rival gatherings, intimidate opponents or trigger confrontations. After the mission, payments are quietly distributed through local coordinators at roadside eateries, petrol stations or neighbourhood pubs before the recruits return to their communities, awaiting the next mobilisation.

Read: Gunmen, goons and fear: Shame of Ol Kalou ‘State’ terror

It is a script security experts say has become increasingly familiar in Kenyan politics, a system where violence has become a commodity and unemployed youth its cheapest labour.

Investigators say the threat is not only the existence of these groups, but their ability to mobilise quickly, operate anonymously and shield those who finance them. Unlike traditional political mobilisation structures where supporters openly identify with parties and candidates, the new networks are fluid, allowing the same groups to be deployed for different interests depending on who pays.

Research reviewed by the Nation shows a young man can be recruited for as little as Sh500 to attend political gatherings, chant slogans or swell crowds. More dangerous assignments, including disrupting rallies, intimidating opponents, invading disputed land or confronting rival groups, attract between Sh2,000 and Sh5,000.

Recruiters handling larger operations often distribute hundreds of thousands of shillings through neighbourhood coordinators, keeping financiers away from those carrying out the violence.

The growing concern is that Kenya’s biggest electoral threat ahead of the August 2027 General Election may no longer be hate speech alone, but the ease with which organised networks can mobilise unemployed youth to influence political participation through fear.

Read: Women’s hidden hand in Kenya’s political goons networks

In late July, a Kofi Annan Foundation report warned of the possibility of election-relatedviolence in Kenya, projecting an 84.1 per cent probability of electoral violence during the 2027 General Election.

While acknowledging that Kenya’s institutions are stronger than those of many countries vulnerable to electoral conflict, the foundation warned that unresolved political grievances, economic hardship, youth unemployment, ethnic mobilisation and mistrust in institutions remain major risks.

A 2025 report by OdipoDev and Tribeless Youth, titled Goonland: Looking Beyond the Money and Violence in the Political Exploitation of Young Men, describes an informal labour market where violence is bought and sold.

The report found that unemployed youth are recruited through local handlers, with payments increasing depending on the risk involved. Politicians, land speculators and business interests rarely interact directly with recruits, instead relying on intermediaries and neighbourhood mobilisers — testament to the fact that violence has become transactional.

Suspected goon attack scenes during a Sunday service at the St Stephens Anglican Cathedral, Kisumu on July 12, 2026. The Linda Mwananchi graced the Kenya Anglican Men's Association Day at the church.

Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation

For Peter Ouko, Executive Director of Crime Si Poa, a crime reduction and legal empowerment organisation, the greatest danger lies not only in the young men recruited to cause chaos but in the system that creates and sustains them.

He argues that political violence has become a gateway through which unemployed youth are introduced to criminal networks.

“What are we teaching our children?” Mr Ouko posed.

“If they can be hired by politicians who ask them to carry knives and stab people, then as a society we normalise it. We have very poor role models. Young criminals now believe they can commit crime and go scot free.”

Mr Ouko says groups created during election seasons often survive beyond campaigns and later turn their attention to ordinary crime.

“We have created a monster, and at the moment when there are no political activities, these same goons resort to robbing the local population to sustain the lifestyle they have been introduced to by political leaders,” he said.

He argues that the focus should not only be on the young men carrying out violence, but those who finance and control them.

“Politicians are squarely to blame for sustaining these bad manners. Every goon is owned by someone; get the masters!” he said.

The National Crime Research Centre (NCRC) paints a similarly worrying picture.

Its 2025 report, The Proliferation and Resilience of Criminal Gangs in Kenya, links the growth of gangs to political patronage, unemployment and impunity. It documented 73 active gangs in Mombasa, 56 in Nairobi and 47 in Kilifi, warning that some political leaders facilitate the release of arrested gang members, allowing them to regroup and continue operating as informal political enforcers.

NCRC Director Dr Mutuma Ruteere said the hiring of youth to disrupt political events and rallies is a growing threat that must be addressed before it becomes entrenched.

“Beyond targeting the muggers and robbers stabbing people, there is an urgent need to look at the different forms of organised crime and how gang groups operate because therein lies the heart of the problem,” he said.

The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) has also warned that criminal gangs are becoming increasingly organised and politically connected, sustained by unemployment, weak law enforcement and limited accountability.

In July, NCIC Chairperson Bishop Kepha Omae warned that disruption of political gatherings and attacks on citizens and leaders risked igniting violence.

“This is not normal politics. It is conduct that the law calls hate speech and ethnic contempt. The commission is watching and where the law is broken — we will act without fear or favour,” he said.

Unlike previous election cycles, recruitment today happens almost entirely through decentralised digital networks. Every informal settlement has trusted coordinators capable of assembling dozens, sometimes hundreds, of young men within minutes. Instructions are relayed through WhatsApp groups before local handlers assign roles and distribute cash.

The economics explain why the system continues to thrive. For many unemployed youth, Sh500 can mean several meals while Sh2,000 may pay rent or part of school fees.

Activist and spoken-word artist Willie Oeba argues that poverty has become the raw material from which political violence is manufactured.

“There is a deliberate effort to keep young people poor so they can be bought cheaply,” he said.

The government has acknowledged the challenge posed by criminal gangs but insists it is working to address both security and economic causes.

The Jukwaa la Usalama report launched by President William Ruto in December 2025 documented more than 130 gangs operating in Nairobi alone and hundreds more across the country involved in political violence, extortion, land invasions and organised crime. Security agencies say many regroup during election cycles, serving as informal enforcement units for political interests.

Goons approach Nation Media Group crew in Ruiru before attacking and robbing them on May 18, 2026.

Photo credit: Evans Habil | Nation Media Group

During the July Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, armed gangs attacked residents, journalists and political supporters in broad daylight, leaving two people dead. Despite the circulation of photographs, videos and vehicle registration numbers allegedly linked to the attackers, no arrests had been announced weeks later.

Observers warn that failure to hold perpetrators accountable risks sending a message that political violence carries little consequence.

A few days after the Ol Kalou violence, Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen defended the National Police Service, saying security had improved.

Read: Murkomen: 'Goon crisis has been exaggerated'

“Kenya is safer and more secure than ever before. There has never been a time when we have fewer attacks, robberies, banditry, terrorism and all kinds of theft. Statistics speak for themselves,” he said.

He nevertheless acknowledged the existence of political gangs.

In an interview with the Nation in May, Interior Principal Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo said the resurgence of goons was a longstanding challenge partly driven by youth unemployment and limited opportunities.

He said the government was expanding opportunities through programmes such as NYOTA, labour mobility initiatives and employment opportunities under the Affordable Housing Programme.

For investigators, researchers and democracy advocates, the concern extends beyond individual acts of violence.

It is the emergence of a political marketplace where intimidation can be ordered through a phone call, coordinated through WhatsApp and financed with a few thousand shillings.

If these networks are not dismantled before campaigns intensify, the greatest casualty may not only be public order, but the credibility of Kenya’s 2027 General Election.

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soketch@ke.nationmedia.com