Today I want to jump off the cliff of good evidentiary practice and into the thin air of stream of consciousness both as a literary device and as licensed, reckless philosophical speculation.

Now, I speculate – with impunity – that by the end of this eighth month of 2026, a meeting of the political elite will have taken place and a deal struck on the election next year. Hard evidence? None. But there are indications.

I have often said that Kenyan presidential elections are not more deceptive than we imagine, they are more deceptive than we can imagine. I also believe that our elections are arranged marriages; deals are sealed way ahead of time, the president selected, then we are serenaded through endless drama and pantomimes, make-believe animosity with “fighting” between “rivals” thrown in for good measure.

The political caste system in Kenya has fully set. It consists of a small group whose feet have been in the warmth of power and wealth for 63 years, surrounded by a slightly larger layer of retainers who protect and serve the curia in exchange for their own access to privilege, power and opulence.

In their pure form, castes, which are bloodline-based, are impermeable, totally closed. In the kind of system that has evolved in Kenya, it is not possible to have a closed caste. So there is tightly controlled permeability with membership parsimoniously doled out to the most useful of the factotums.

I don’t believe that there are any deep differences between top political leaders in Kenya, whether they are in power or opposition, none, neither ideological nor pragmatic. But there are deep, shared political and economic interests that override any personality differences. I presume they consider themselves the same people, irrespective of tribe or other less important differentiators.

That is why I am coming round to the belief that none of the top flight politicians, in government or opposition, is violently opposed to the status quo and none of them has any objection to its continuation. As a matter of fact, I’d not harm myself if it were to be discovered that overtly or covertly they support the existing regime and the rest is just drama. It is therefore reasonable to assume that what they do not want is real change, because change upsets entrenched interests, plucks pig snouts out of the trough.

Talking of drama, the Kenyan political space is like a mix of the finest Italian opera and the home of a polygamous man married to five women. Insane theatre galore, attention seeking folks throwing themselves to the ground, rolling in the dust and attempting to slit their own throats to attract attention. But whereas in the polygamous space the oestrogen is driven by jealousy, competition, dissatisfaction, insecurity and an excess of imperfectly requited love, in politics it is driven by ethnicity and manufactured Kabuki-type differences played out from atop vehicles and in press conferences. When you see a senior politician calling a press conference to lampoon another senior politician, chances are that there really is no fight, just positioning.

Have you ever wondered why Kenyan elections are never about substance? They are 40 per cent tribalism, 40 per cent personality politics and 20 per cent lies – biscuits and candy for the great unwashed – about what I am going to give you, where I use your money to buy the things to be given. If I use taxpayer’s money to buy diapers for women taxpayers, who is giving who what?

Kenyan elections are never about substance. There is never a thorough diagnosis of the country’s biggest problems. When did Kenya’s most urgent problem become a shortage of flats? I’d have thought that a changing climate threatening the backbone sector of the economy, which contributes between 20-26 per cent of GDP, an additional 27 per cent indirectly through linkages to other sectors like manufacturing, employs more than 40 per cent of the total population, sustains more than 70 per cent of the rural population and generates between 50 per cent and 60 per cent of total export earnings, would be a particular focus, not shiny things that deplete the earnings of the people through predatory taxation.

I’d also have imagined that the tragedy of our times is the millions of youth – full of energy and ideas to teleport our country to a great future – going to waste without a means to earn a living. So what do leaders do? They walk around with Teachers Service Commission appointment letters in their coat pockets, hawking them, blissfully unaware that what many youth would rather do is start a business, not buy an AEIOU job.

They also take budget from education and skills development, never ever investing in leadership, character formation and fight against behavioural diseases, such as addiction and anxiety, and pretend to spur growth using alms in the form of pitifully small grants, directing the youth towards motorcycle transport business and cleaning floors in the Gulf – a dead-end if there ever was one.

If you see your dog circling a bush, it has buried a bone there. The political caste is not fundamentally interested in the people or the development of the country as such, they are interested in power and access to public funds. As ordinary voters, our best bet is to cast a wildcat among the fat-cats and break up the party. If all fails, well, an elephant is never buried with its tusks; we could join in the festivities!

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Mr Mathiu is a communications consultant and farmer. mutumamathiu@gmail.com.