Some pretty interesting developments within the opposition formations have opened up likely scenarios for the coming weeks and months, touching on the outsize role presently dominated by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

When former Attorney-General Justin Muturi, former Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya and former Embu Senator Lenny Kivuti tore into the emerging Mt Kenya political kingpin for his bullying and arrogant ways, they voiced frustrations shared by many opposition politicians in the populous region, but which none have had the guts to publicly air.

There is no doubt that since his impeachment and ejection from President William Ruto’s court, Mr Gachagua has confounded everybody with the way in which he moved to firmly occupy the Mt Kenya leadership vacuum. He was a first-term MP for Mathira with zero national profile when Dr Ruto—then Deputy President and Kenya Kwanza alliance presidential candidate—handpicked him as running mate in 2022, catapulting him over the bids of seemingly more suitable candidates.

Mr Gachagua’s main qualification, it seemed, was in being the perfect attack dog to be unleashed, especially on home base, against outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta and his preferred presidential candidate, Raila Odinga.

He did not disappoint. Mr Gachagua had no time for decorum or fair play, directing by the foulest of means vicious attacks on Mr Kenyatta, whom he once served as a personal assistant, and helping consolidate the Mt Kenya vote for Dr Ruto. But once in office as DP and seemingly growing too big for his boots, the President orchestrated his expulsion from the feeding trough.

Clueless political hatchet men

President Ruto and his allies, often clueless political hatchet men who also suffer the arrogance of power, had miscalculated big time in assuming that Mr Gachagua would quickly disappear into oblivion.

They ignored the famous truism coined by US President of years past, Lyndon B Johnson, on a political foe: “It's better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in.”

The Frankenstein President Ruto created has become his worst nightmare. The problem is that Mr Gachagua is now not only waging war against the Ruto machinery but also employing his abrasive ways against fellow travellers on the outside, thereby also becoming the President’s most effective tool in dividing the opposition.

The way in which Mr Gachagua has seized political dominance in the Mt Kenya region, and in the process elevated himself to the top ranks in national leadership, is something to behold.

But he is a polarising and thoroughly disagreeable figure, who prefers force over diplomacy, bullying over persuasion.

Outside his ethnic bastion, Mr Gachagua is thoroughly distrusted, if not outrightly loathed, for his seeming projection of Mt Kenya supremacy and entitlement. His worldview is limited to Mt Kenya interests, which alarms even fellow opposition leaders from outside the region, who, however, have to hold their noses and deal with him because of the numbers he controls.

But even within Mt Kenya, many respectable leaders would want to keep a distance from his acerbic ways but dare not cross his path.

Messrs Muturi, Munya and Kivuti had had enough. They will not fold their puny little political outfits on command of Mr Gachagua and his DCP juggernaut.

It is instructive that the trio got the guts to speak out shortly after Mr Kenyatta convened a meeting of what remains of the 2022 Azimio coalition party, and admitted into its ranks outfits affiliated to the United Alternative Government in which Mr Gachagua is the leading figure. The latter’s absence at the Azimio parley was pretty notable.

The former president obviously offers a more respectful, accommodative and collegial leadership style and could attract many repelled by Mr Gachagua’s abrasive mien, yet it is unlikely that he will surrender the easy life and comforts of retirement to aggressively take to the campaign hustings.

Putting government in check

Mr Gachagua is the one who keeps President Ruto permanently on his toes. He is the one quickest on the draw when a riposte is called for. It is evident that other leaders in his alliance—Wiper leader and favoured presidential candidate Kalonzo Musyoka, and former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i—seemingly go into hibernation when he is absent.

The Mt Kenya kingpin recently lauded ODM rebel and Linda Mwananchi presidential hopeful Edwin Sifuna for moving aggressively to secure his western Kenya base the same he has secured Mt Kenya, lamenting that while the two of them were keeping up pressure on the President, Mr Musyoka and Dr Matiang’i had gone AWOL. Something may be cooking, but the message is out that even as he controls the masses, Mr Gachagua must learn to treat partners with respect.

Mr Gaitho, an independent journalist, is former NMG Managing Editor for Special Projects. gaithomail@gmail.com