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Why millions of people around the world will contract measles in 2026
The World Health Organization estimates that in 2026 nearly 11 million people will contract the virus that causes measles. Most of these cases will occur in Africa and Asia, but many countries in the Americas and Europe are reporting outbreaks affecting hundreds or thousands of people.
There is no treatment for measles, but vaccines have been proven to be safe and effective at preventing the disease. Unvaccinated people who get sick with measles are at risk of serious complications that can lead to deafness, blindness and death. The risk of a bad outcome is higher for people who are undernourished and unable to access supportive medical care.
As an infectious disease epidemiologist, I study the reasons for changes in population health risks around the world. The specific factors leading to measles epidemics vary by country, but the underlying cause everywhere is decreased vaccination rates.
Zero-dose children in low-income countries
The vast majority of parents around the world want to protect their children from preventable infectious diseases through vaccination. In many lower-income countries, the supply of vaccines remains insufficient to meet the demand for them.
Because measles is highly contagious, the vaccination rate needs to be above 95 per cent to protect a community from outbreaks, creating what is known as “herd immunity.” One dose of measles vaccine protects most people from the disease, but two doses are recommended to improve effectiveness.
Most high-income countries have measles vaccine rates near the 95 per cent target. In Europe, the average one-dose vaccination rate is about 94 per cent, and the two-dose rate is about 88 per cent. In the US, more than 90 per cent of 2-year-olds have received at least one dose of measles vaccine and more than 92 per cent of kindergartners have received two doses. The vaccine coverage rate is above 95 per cent in many communities, though it is much lower in some school districts.