Why El Niño preparedness can’t wait

There is a difference between knowing that a disaster may happen and being ready when it does. For communities living in areas exposed to flooding, that difference can be measured in hours, sometimes even minutes.

Kenya is approaching the coming rainy season with a high likelihood of El Niño conditions. The Kenya Meteorological Department has warned of a high likelihood of El Niño conditions, with its forecasts indicating a 85 per cent - 90 per cent probability of the conditions persisting through the end of 2026. For communities that have lived through destructive floods before, this is not information to put aside until the rains begin. It is a reason to start preparing now.

The temptation is to wait for the next forecast or until the first heavy rains arrive or worst still to wait until water starts rising or until an emergency is officially declared. But by then, some of the most important decisions may already be too late.

When floods happen, the first people to respond are usually those who are already there. A neighbour checks on an older person living alone. A family moves children and belongings to higher ground. Young people clear a blocked drainage channel. A community health worker checks on households that may need help. A farmer moves livestock to safer ground. These actions often happen long before an emergency team can reach an affected area.

Communities are therefore not simply recipients of assistance. They are the first responders. This is why preparing for El Niño must begin at community level. It means asking what can be done now, while there is still time and before people are forced to make decisions under pressure.

Some of the most useful actions are also the simplest. Clear drainage around homes and public spaces. Check roofs and gutters. Identify places that are likely to flood. Know where people can move if evacuation becomes necessary. Protect important documents and valuables by moving them to safer places. Talk to neighbours and agree on how warnings will be shared.

The Kenya Red Cross Society encourages communities to monitor official warnings, clear drainage, secure homes and critical infrastructure, and move people, livestock and assets away from high-risk areas before conditions worsen.

The timing matters. Clearing a drainage channel before heavy rainfall is very different from trying to clear it when water is already flowing through a neighbourhood. Moving livestock before a river breaks its banks is safer than trying to rescue animals in floodwater. Knowing where to go before evacuation becomes necessary and gives families choices that may disappear once roads are flooded. An early warning only becomes useful when people can act on it.