Lead image for Kenya should industrialise to avoid economic decline .
There is one question every Kenyan should ask before the next general election: How will Kenya create millions of decent jobs for its young people? Closely linked to that is an even bigger question: How does a nation become rich?
History provides only one convincing answer. Nations become prosperous by producing more than they consume, manufacturing more than they import, exporting more than they buy, and creating wealth through productive enterprise. In short, they industrialise.
Large-scale industrialisation is the only proven path to sustainable wealth creation and mass employment. Every country that has successfully escaped poverty has done so by building a strong manufacturing base.
Industrialisation creates millions of factory jobs, but its impact extends far beyond the factory. Every manufacturing job supports many others in agriculture, transport, logistics, construction, engineering, finance, technology, education and professional services. A single textile factory creates demand for cotton farmers, truck drivers, warehouse operators, machine technicians, accountants, software developers, security firms, restaurants and countless small businesses. Manufacturing is the engine that pulls the entire economy.
The first duty of any government is to create conditions in which its citizens can find productive work and earn dignified livelihoods. Yet for decades, successive Kenyan governments have effectively accepted that the majority of young people will survive in the informal economy. Today, an estimated 85 per cent of young Kenyans are trapped in unemployment, underemployment or insecure informal work. That is not simply an economic challenge. It is a failure of national leadership.
It also explains why thousands of talented young Kenyans are leaving the country every year in search of opportunities abroad. They are not abandoning Kenya because they lack patriotism. They are leaving because their own economy has failed to offer them hope. No country should accept the export of its brightest and most energetic generation as a normal feature of national life.
Governments have responded with youth empowerment funds, cash grants, subsidised loans and temporary public works programmes. While these initiatives may generate political headlines, they cannot solve structural unemployment. No government can directly employ millions of people. No public works programme can absorb an entire generation. No financial handout can substitute for permanent, productive employment created by a growing private sector.
Former President Mwai Kibaki understood this reality. Through Vision 2030, he set Kenya on the path towards becoming "a newly industrialising, middle-income country." His vision recognised that national prosperity would not be built on consumption, speculation or government spending alone, but on production, exports and manufacturing.