Kenya will need to grow its citizens’ average incomes by at least 10 percent every year for the next 35 years to attain the high-income status dream outlined in President William Ruto’s Vision 2060.

This is the verdict of a government-backed team of experts guiding the 30-year plan to transform Kenya into an industrialised economy by focusing on increased farm productivity, expanded export-oriented manufacturing, and deeper technology and innovation.

The 2030-60 plan seeks to position Kenya as a politically stable state with an efficient civil service, respect for the rule of law, macroeconomic stability, and sustainable public debt, according to an outline of the proposal.

The new economic blueprint, for which the President launched public participation on Wednesday, has set a target of $80,000 (Sh10.3 million) for average yearly income for Kenyans, matching the current level in Singapore.

This is up from the current level of about $2,000 (Sh258,500), thrusting Kenya into a high-income economy status.

The team of experts, led by former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist and mission chief for Kenya, Prof Hiroyuki Hino, has revealed that Kenya’s gross national income (GNI) per person will need to grow by up to 40 times between now and 2060 to reach the desired vision.

“We will need a 10 percent annual per-capita income growth, sustained every year for the next 35 years,” Prof Hino said at the launch of the national conversation on Vision 2060 on Wednesday.

The 10 percent growth rate has rarely been attained in Kenya’s history, according to World Bank data.

Last year, Kenya’s average GNI, also known as GNI per capita, grew by 6.2 percent from $2,070 to $2,200, adds the multilateral lender.

This was the fastest rate since 2021, when the economy was emerging from the Covid-19 slump.

Since independence, Kenya’s GNI has grown by double digits only 21 times, meaning just once every three years. The fastest growth was recorded in 1996, when GNI per capita grew by 25 percent from $280 to $350.

To sustain the double-digit growth annually, the team of experts says Kenya must prioritise a “prudent fiscal strategy, substantial infrastructure and major projects, and a business-friendly regulatory environment.”

In addition to increasing average income, the vision also aims to improve the quality of learning by 27 percent; raise the percentage of the population with access to basic services like water and healthcare from the current 61 percent to 100 percent; and put an end to child malnutrition.

According to Prof Hino, the three non-income targets are attainable by 2063, lifting Kenya to Singapore’s level, but “matching Singapore’s income will be the steep climb.”

The experts outlined four priorities that Kenya must do differently to attain the Vision 2060 first-world status goal, beginning with nurturing self-management to raise productivity.

The experts have also urged the State to embrace informal enterprises by letting small businesses “grow on their own terms,” to eradicate corruption, and to correct income inequality.

President William Ruto said inequality is particularly a major challenge for Kenya, and part of the major barriers to improving the lives of its people, with roughly 20 percent of the population accounting for over half of the income in the country.

“A very serious challenge in our nation is inequality…we cannot progress as a nation when we cannot take care of the vulnerable,” Ruto said. “We have to pay attention.”

Ruto expressed optimism that the goals are attainable, vowing to incorporate Kenyans’ views into the development of the roadmap to Vision 2060, and to implement issues raised by Kenyans.

The 2030-60 plan will succeed the two-decade Vision 2030 initiative.

The State says it will develop a law and an independent oversight body designed to prevent future administrations from abandoning the plan, a pattern that undermined the implementation of the Vision 2030 strategy.

Ruto’s administration has prioritised major infrastructure investment in roads, railways, and ports through a new National Infrastructure Fund, which already holds Sh349 billion from state asset sales. A separate sovereign wealth fund is also planned to safeguard national resources for future generations.

vogweno@ke.nationmedia.com