The African market accounted for more than two out of every five shillings earned from Kenya's merchandise exports in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting the continent’s growing position as the country's leading destination as regional demand rebounded after a difficult 2025.

The continent absorbed 41.7 percent of Kenya's exports in the three months ended March, up from 36.9 percent in the corresponding period last year when shipments to several key regional markets weakened.

The latest share is the second-highest in at least nine years, surpassed only by the 43 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2023, and marks a significant rise from 33.7 percent in 2018.

The stronger regional purchases meant Africa generated nearly nine out of every 10 new export shillings earned by Kenya during the quarter, underscoring its role as the principal driver of the country's export recovery.

This was after Kenya's exports to African countries rose by Sh25.68 billion to Sh127.9 billion, accounting for about 85 percent of the Sh30.02 billion increase in the country's total merchandise exports.

Overall merchandise exports increased 10.8 percent to Sh306.78 billion from Sh276.76 billion in the corresponding quarter last year, while exports to Africa expanded at more than twice that pace, rising 25.1 percent from Sh102.22 billion.

The broad-based rebound followed a difficult 2025, when exports to several of Kenya's largest African markets declined, dragging the continent's contribution to Kenya's export earnings below the levels recorded a year earlier.

The improved performance comes despite longstanding logistical challenges that continue to constrain trade across the continent. African governments estimate underdeveloped transport networks increase the cost of goods and services by as much as 40 percent, reducing the competitiveness of intra-African trade compared with commerce involving Europe and other developed regions.

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Investments, Trade and Industry Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui says reducing transport costs and transit times remains one of the biggest opportunities for accelerating trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

"When you look at the entire continent of Africa, you realise that our greatest challenge is logistics. On average, if you want to take a product from Mombasa to say Ghana or any other country, it takes about 45 days. That is very long compared to other destinations,” Mr Kinyanjui said in June. “We believe that in the area of logistics and transshipments, we can do more to encourage free trade in Africa."

Uganda remained Kenya's biggest export destination in Africa after purchases climbed 27.9 percent to Sh46.01 billion from Sh33.18 billion in the corresponding quarter last year.

The Sh12.83 billion increase in exports to Uganda accounted for almost half of the total growth in Kenya's exports to Africa, underlining the west-neighbouring country's position as a market for Kenyan manufactured goods, processed foods, pharmaceuticals and consumer products.

The Democratic Republic of Congo recorded the fastest growth among Kenya's leading African export destinations, with purchases jumping 73 percent to Sh11.88 billion after falling in the corresponding quarter last year.

Exports to Tanzania rebounded 18.7 percent to Sh17.94 billion after declining in 2025, while shipments to Rwanda increased 15.6 percent to Sh10.70 billion. Exports to Egypt also recovered, rising 39.7 percent to Sh8.98 billion, although they remained below 2024 levels.

The recovery across Kenya's five largest African markets suggests regional demand strengthened broadly rather than being driven by a single destination, offering traders and manufacturers a more diversified base for export growth.

The stronger exports widened Kenya's goods trade surplus with Africa to a record Sh56.47 billion in the first quarter from Sh35.31 billion in the same period last year as export growth outpaced imports.

The latest surplus represents a near 60 percent increase from a year earlier and is the largest Kenya has recorded with the continent in at least a decade, highlighting the widening gap between the country's exports to Africa and what it buys from regional markets.

The trade balance caps a turnaround in Kenya's trade relationship with Africa over the past nine years. In the first quarter of 2018, Kenya ran a Sh4.33 billion merchandise trade deficit with the continent, importing more goods than it exported.

The balance swung to a modest Sh373 million surplus in 2019 before widening to Sh19.53 billion in 2020. It eased to Sh18.19 billion in 2021 and Sh14.89 billion in 2022 before accelerating to Sh37.33 billion in 2023 and Sh41.92 billion in 2024.

Although the surplus narrowed to Sh35.31 billion in 2025 after exports weakened across several of Kenya's largest African markets, the latest figures show regional demand has rebounded enough to lift the balance well above previous highs, reinforcing Kenya's position as one of the continent's leading manufacturing exporters.

The data shows that Kenya exported Sh127.90 billion worth of goods to Africa while importing Sh71.42 billion, lifting total merchandise trade with the continent to a record Sh199.32 billion, compared with Sh169.13 billion in the corresponding period last year.

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The KNBS numbers show Africa remains one of the few regions where Kenya consistently enjoys a sizeable merchandise trade surplus, reflecting the country's relatively stronger manufacturing base compared with many neighbouring economies.

While exports are becoming increasingly dependent on Africa, the opposite trend is emerging on the import side.

Imports from African countries rose a modest 6.7 percent to Sh71.42 billion from Sh66.91 billion in the first quarter of last year, far below the pace of export growth.

As a result, Africa's share of Kenya's import bill fell to 9.6 percent from 10.5 percent a year earlier, the lowest level in the review period in at least a decade.

The decline extends a long-term trend. Africa supplied 13.5 percent of Kenya's imports in the first quarter of 2018 before its share steadily declined as imports from Asia, the Middle East and other global suppliers expanded faster.

The contrasting trends underline the changing nature of Kenya's trade relationship with the continent. While Africa has become increasingly important as a destination for Kenyan exports, it has become relatively less significant as a source of imports.

The divergence reflects Kenya's growing dependence on African markets to absorb manufactured goods, while businesses continue sourcing petroleum products, machinery, electronics, industrial raw materials and other capital goods predominantly from suppliers outside the continent.

Despite accounting for less than one-fifth of Kenya's total merchandise trade, Africa generated nearly 42 percent of export earnings while contributing less than 10 percent of imports, highlighting the continent's disproportionate importance to Kenya's external trade balance.

Africa's share of Kenya's total merchandise trade [exports and imports] stood at 18.95 percent during the quarter, largely unchanged from 18.53 percent a year earlier and close to the long-term average of about 19 percent.

That stability masks a significant structural shift. While Africa's contribution to Kenya's overall trade has remained largely unchanged, its role in the country's exports has expanded markedly as its contribution to imports has steadily diminished.

In 2018, for instance, Africa accounted for 33.7 percent of Kenya's export earnings and 13.5 percent of imports. By the first quarter of 2026, those figures had shifted to 41.7 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively.

The widening gap suggests Kenya is steadily strengthening its competitive position in African markets even as domestic industries remain reliant on suppliers outside the continent for many industrial inputs and consumer goods.

The latest figures underline the economic gains that could be unlocked if investments in transport corridors, border infrastructure and logistics lower the cost and time of moving goods across the continent.

cmunda@ke.nationmedia.com