Lead image for Why Kenya can’t afford to play down El Niño.
There is an 81 percent chance that the El Niño expected to peak between October and December and possibly persist into early 2027 could become one of the most powerful events since 1950. This is according to a projection by the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
That forecast should serve as a wake-up call for the government and all institutions responsible for disaster preparedness and response. The question is no longer whether Kenya should prepare, but whether it is ready.
If preparedness is the country's first line of defense, the budget does little to reflect that priority. The 2026/27 National Budget contains no dedicated allocation for El Niño preparedness, meaning any response will depend on existing disaster management and contingency financing.
This is despite a recent report from The International Rescue Committee (IRC) placing Kenya, Uganda, Somalia and some regions of Asia among the most at risk.
This challenge is compounded by shrinking donor funding. As reported by the Daily Nation on July 30th, Kenya Red Cross Secretary General, Ahmed Idris says funding from the United States has fallen to about 40 percent. At a time when Kenya is already experiencing a prolonged dry spell, reduced humanitarian financing could weaken the country's ability to respond to the impacts of El Niño.
The question that keeps coming up though is, why is it that as a country we are always caught flat footed and left to take a reactive approach rather than a proactive one. Where do we miss the mark and what gaps should be addressed?
The World Resources Institute (WRI) warns that decades of poor urban planning, ageing drainage systems and environmental degradation have left Nairobi vulnerable to flood disasters.
While Kenya’s Cabinet Committee on El Niño Preparedness and Response is mandated to implement a national contingency plan, evacuation and shelter, the emphasis remains largely on managing consequences of extreme weather rather than addressing the structural vulnerabilities that make disasters so devastating in the first place.