Lead image for Making sense of Kenya-China trade discrepancy.
Recent media reports indicated that goods worth approximately Sh629 billion exported from China to Kenya do not appear in Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) import records thereby understandably generating public concern. At first glance, such figures suggest a massive revenue leakage and raise questions about integrity of Kenya's customs administration.
However, as an experienced practitioner in the customs clearing and freight forwarding industry, I believe the public deserves a more nuanced and technically informed discussion.
While the discrepancy is significant and warrants urgent investigation, it would be premature to conclude that the entire difference represents lost taxes or corruption.
International trade statistics are complex and differences between one country's export records and another country's import records are not uncommon.
The real question is not whether there is a discrepancy. The question is what explains it.
One of the most common causes is the difference in statistical recording methodologies. China's General Administration of Customs (CGAC) records exports based on its own customs declarations, while Kenya records imports only after goods have been entered into its Integrated Customs Management System.
The two systems are administered independently, use different reporting methodologies and may not always capture transactions within the same reporting period.
Timing alone can create significant differences. A consignment exported from Shanghai in late December 2025 may only arrive in Mombasa in January 2026. China records the export in one financial year, while Kenya records the import in the next. When aggregated across thousands of consignments, such timing differences can materially affect annual statistics.